Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Hualan Group Co., Ltd. (301027.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.52 - $0.68$0.60
Multi-Stage$1.18 - $1.30$1.24
Blended Fair Value$0.92
Current Price$17.95
Upside-94.88%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-43.30%0.00%0.080.030.160.030.201.450.220.240.000.00
YoY Growth--146.29%-78.26%474.74%-85.87%-86.53%558.68%-7.55%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.66%0.35%1.13%0.12%0.66%4.93%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.922.451.47
Cash Retained (M)11.0911.0911.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.92-2.45-1.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.178.649.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)149.43149.43149.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate8.44%8.44%8.44%
Growth Rate-9.88%-8.88%-7.88%
Fair Value$0.52$0.60$0.68
Upside / Downside-97.12%-96.64%-96.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19.5917.8516.2714.8213.5112.3112.68
Payout Ratio43.40%52.72%62.04%71.36%80.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.509.4110.0910.5810.9011.0811.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.44%8.44%8.44%
Growth Rate-9.88%-8.88%-7.88%
Year 1 PV (M)8.588.688.77
Year 2 PV (M)8.408.588.77
Year 3 PV (M)8.038.308.57
Year 4 PV (M)7.547.888.23
Year 5 PV (M)6.997.397.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)136.17143.89151.96
Equity Value (M)175.71184.72194.12
Shares Outstanding (M)149.43149.43149.43
Fair Value$1.18$1.24$1.30
Upside / Downside-93.45%-93.11%-92.76%

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