Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhejiang Hongchang Electrical Technology Co., Ltd. (301008.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.61 - $6.12$4.70
Multi-Stage$4.52 - $4.95$4.73
Blended Fair Value$4.71
Current Price$43.46
Upside-89.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS17.77%0.00%0.440.300.020.340.150.190.050.030.000.00
YoY Growth--45.71%1,793.30%-95.40%135.87%-24.31%292.93%88.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.91%1.74%0.08%1.53%0.34%0.45%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)33.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)21.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.794.242.54
Cash Retained (M)21.3721.3721.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.79-4.24-2.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.5817.1318.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)116.36116.36116.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.260.27
WACC / Discount Rate8.50%8.50%8.50%
Growth Rate1.91%2.91%3.91%
Fair Value$3.61$4.70$6.12
Upside / Downside-91.69%-89.18%-85.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)33.9334.9235.9436.9838.0639.1740.35
Payout Ratio37.02%47.62%58.21%68.81%79.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.5616.6320.9225.4530.2235.2537.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.50%8.50%8.50%
Growth Rate1.91%2.91%3.91%
Year 1 PV (M)15.1815.3315.47
Year 2 PV (M)17.4317.7718.12
Year 3 PV (M)19.3519.9320.51
Year 4 PV (M)20.9821.8122.67
Year 5 PV (M)22.3323.4524.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)430.19451.71474.09
Equity Value (M)525.46550.00575.48
Shares Outstanding (M)116.36116.36116.36
Fair Value$4.52$4.73$4.95
Upside / Downside-89.61%-89.12%-88.62%

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