Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Zhejiang Songyuan Automotive Safety Systems Co.,Ltd. (300893.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$131.27 - $213.86$200.42
Multi-Stage$34.27 - $37.55$35.88
Blended Fair Value$118.15
Current Price$28.50
Upside314.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.55%0.00%0.200.110.120.180.070.130.160.090.160.00
YoY Growth--76.03%-3.24%-37.02%153.55%-41.98%-19.72%64.43%-39.82%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.81%0.53%0.66%1.58%0.69%0.96%1.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)332.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)57.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)274.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)66.5541.5924.95
Cash Retained (M)274.99274.99274.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-66.55-41.59-24.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)208.45233.40250.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)309.42309.42309.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.670.750.81
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.670.750.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.860.940.99
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$131.27$200.42$213.86
Upside / Downside360.59%603.22%650.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)332.73354.36377.39401.92428.04455.87469.54
Payout Ratio17.35%31.88%46.41%60.94%75.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)57.73112.97175.15244.93323.05410.28434.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)105.39106.39107.39
Year 2 PV (M)152.42155.32158.25
Year 3 PV (M)198.83204.54210.36
Year 4 PV (M)244.63254.04263.72
Year 5 PV (M)289.83303.83318.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,613.9810,078.3410,560.47
Equity Value (M)10,605.0911,102.4611,618.55
Shares Outstanding (M)309.42309.42309.42
Fair Value$34.27$35.88$37.55
Upside / Downside20.26%25.90%31.75%

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