Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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HG Technologies Co., Ltd. (300847.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.16 - $78.18$73.27
Multi-Stage$11.88 - $13.01$12.44
Blended Fair Value$42.85
Current Price$17.61
Upside143.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.27%12.13%0.100.110.080.060.000.040.030.060.050.04
YoY Growth---9.91%48.00%20.55%0.00%-100.00%33.29%-45.42%15.22%46.32%10.69%
Dividend Yield--0.60%0.72%0.50%0.47%0.00%0.66%0.49%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)114.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)74.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.9914.378.62
Cash Retained (M)74.7174.7174.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.99-14.37-8.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)51.7160.3466.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)292.43292.43292.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.39%6.39%6.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$37.16$73.27$78.18
Upside / Downside110.99%316.07%343.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)114.96122.44130.39138.87147.90157.51162.23
Payout Ratio35.02%46.01%57.01%68.01%79.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.2656.3474.3494.44116.84141.76150.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.39%6.39%6.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)52.4652.9553.45
Year 2 PV (M)64.4565.6766.91
Year 3 PV (M)76.2378.4280.65
Year 4 PV (M)87.8191.1994.66
Year 5 PV (M)99.20103.99108.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,094.903,244.383,399.59
Equity Value (M)3,475.043,636.603,804.22
Shares Outstanding (M)292.43292.43292.43
Fair Value$11.88$12.44$13.01
Upside / Downside-32.52%-29.38%-26.13%

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