Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Crastal Technology Co.,Ltd (300824.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consumer ElectronicsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$59.09 - $69.61$65.24
Multi-Stage$42.61 - $46.76$44.65
Blended Fair Value$54.94
Current Price$12.18
Upside351.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.14%61.71%0.270.140.170.170.130.100.180.100.050.00
YoY Growth--100.49%-18.69%0.06%25.00%33.33%-42.86%75.00%103.81%14,814.52%-85.21%
Dividend Yield--2.61%1.76%1.60%1.33%0.83%1.77%3.10%1.77%0.87%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)113.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)74.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.7114.198.52
Cash Retained (M)74.1774.1774.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.71-14.19-8.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)51.4759.9865.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)324.37324.37324.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.310.32
WACC / Discount Rate1.11%1.11%1.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$59.09$65.24$69.61
Upside / Downside385.11%435.62%471.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)113.54120.92128.78137.15146.07155.56160.23
Payout Ratio34.67%45.74%56.80%67.87%78.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.3755.3173.1593.09115.30140.01148.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.11%1.11%1.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)54.1954.7055.21
Year 2 PV (M)70.2171.5572.90
Year 3 PV (M)87.5390.0492.60
Year 4 PV (M)106.22110.30114.51
Year 5 PV (M)126.36132.47138.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,376.9614,023.0714,693.91
Equity Value (M)13,821.4714,482.1415,167.94
Shares Outstanding (M)324.37324.37324.37
Fair Value$42.61$44.65$46.76
Upside / Downside249.83%266.56%283.91%

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