Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Anshan Hifichem Co., Ltd. (300758.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.49 - $39.46$36.98
Multi-Stage$7.01 - $7.68$7.34
Blended Fair Value$22.16
Current Price$13.65
Upside62.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.46%12.11%0.140.090.270.360.230.120.020.140.230.04
YoY Growth--52.82%-66.89%-23.74%57.71%85.52%521.92%-86.15%-37.02%499.28%-14.48%
Dividend Yield--1.07%1.05%2.25%3.00%1.70%1.39%0.13%1.37%2.17%0.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)78.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)28.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)49.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.629.765.86
Cash Retained (M)49.6149.6149.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.62-9.76-5.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)33.9939.8543.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)393.57393.57393.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate5.92%5.92%5.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$33.49$36.98$39.46
Upside / Downside145.37%170.91%189.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)78.0983.1788.5794.33100.46106.99110.20
Payout Ratio36.47%47.18%57.88%68.59%79.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)28.4839.2451.2764.7079.6696.29101.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.92%5.92%5.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)36.6937.0437.39
Year 2 PV (M)44.8445.6946.56
Year 3 PV (M)52.9254.4455.99
Year 4 PV (M)60.9463.2865.69
Year 5 PV (M)68.8972.2275.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,495.432,615.962,741.10
Equity Value (M)2,759.712,888.643,022.40
Shares Outstanding (M)393.57393.57393.57
Fair Value$7.01$7.34$7.68
Upside / Downside-48.63%-46.23%-43.74%

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