Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Ningbo Runhe High-Tech Materials Co., Ltd. (300727.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.38 - $57.80$31.80
Multi-Stage$13.87 - $15.15$14.50
Blended Fair Value$23.15
Current Price$37.73
Upside-38.64%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.01%27.87%0.190.150.130.110.140.130.080.010.010.15
YoY Growth--26.38%9.97%18.70%-18.28%4.09%59.87%661.88%24.71%-94.29%859.77%
Dividend Yield--0.60%0.71%0.54%0.59%0.70%1.32%0.49%0.05%0.12%2.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)121.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)43.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)78.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.3315.209.12
Cash Retained (M)78.2978.2978.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.33-15.20-9.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)53.9663.0869.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)147.17147.17147.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.370.430.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.370.430.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.660.720.76
WACC / Discount Rate8.92%8.92%8.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20.38$31.80$57.80
Upside / Downside-45.97%-15.72%53.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)121.63129.54137.96146.93156.48166.65171.65
Payout Ratio35.64%46.51%57.38%68.26%79.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)43.3560.2579.17100.29123.82149.98158.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.92%8.92%8.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)54.8055.3255.84
Year 2 PV (M)65.4866.7367.99
Year 3 PV (M)75.4477.6179.81
Year 4 PV (M)84.7187.9791.32
Year 5 PV (M)93.3297.83102.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,668.261,748.831,832.49
Equity Value (M)2,042.012,134.282,229.96
Shares Outstanding (M)147.17147.17147.17
Fair Value$13.87$14.50$15.15
Upside / Downside-63.23%-61.56%-59.84%

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