Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Forms Syntron Information Co., Ltd. (300468.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.25 - $1.84$1.53
Multi-Stage$1.78 - $1.94$1.86
Blended Fair Value$1.70
Current Price$38.08
Upside-95.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.06%-1.62%0.060.060.050.060.050.050.050.050.030.07
YoY Growth--0.00%12.39%-3.40%4.32%-2.21%8.49%4.04%69.79%-60.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.39%0.65%0.43%0.39%0.48%0.47%0.65%0.56%0.24%0.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)81.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)53.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.3510.226.13
Cash Retained (M)28.6728.6728.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.35-10.22-6.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.3218.4522.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)527.57527.57527.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.140.14
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate0.06%1.06%2.06%
Fair Value$1.25$1.53$1.84
Upside / Downside-96.72%-95.97%-95.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)81.7382.6083.4884.3785.2786.1888.76
Payout Ratio64.92%69.94%74.95%79.97%84.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)53.0657.7762.5767.4772.4677.5682.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate0.06%1.06%2.06%
Year 1 PV (M)52.0052.5253.04
Year 2 PV (M)50.7051.7252.75
Year 3 PV (M)49.2150.7052.22
Year 4 PV (M)47.5749.5051.49
Year 5 PV (M)45.8348.1750.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)693.45728.80765.58
Equity Value (M)938.76981.401,025.67
Shares Outstanding (M)527.57527.57527.57
Fair Value$1.78$1.86$1.94
Upside / Downside-95.33%-95.11%-94.89%

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