Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Amarsoft Information & Technology Co.,Ltd (300380.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.97 - $1.35$1.16
Multi-Stage$1.65 - $1.81$1.73
Blended Fair Value$1.44
Current Price$49.40
Upside-97.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.40%-2.04%0.080.070.080.220.100.110.030.010.110.10
YoY Growth--13.26%-15.91%-61.00%119.21%-6.95%245.18%157.24%-88.56%5.83%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.16%0.39%0.44%1.25%0.53%0.59%0.12%0.06%0.34%0.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)23.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.642.901.74
Cash Retained (M)9.909.909.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.64-2.90-1.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.277.008.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)138.49138.49138.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.150.15
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate-3.45%-2.45%-1.45%
Fair Value$0.97$1.16$1.35
Upside / Downside-98.04%-97.65%-97.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)23.2022.6322.0821.5321.0120.4921.11
Payout Ratio57.30%63.84%70.38%76.92%83.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.2914.4515.5416.5617.5318.4419.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate-3.45%-2.45%-1.45%
Year 1 PV (M)13.0113.1513.28
Year 2 PV (M)12.6112.8713.13
Year 3 PV (M)12.1112.4912.87
Year 4 PV (M)11.5412.0312.53
Year 5 PV (M)10.9411.5112.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)168.25177.14186.41
Equity Value (M)228.45239.18250.34
Shares Outstanding (M)138.49138.49138.49
Fair Value$1.65$1.73$1.81
Upside / Downside-96.66%-96.50%-96.34%

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