Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company

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Industry

Sector

Lecron Industrial Development Group Co., Ltd. (300343.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.10 - $0.12$0.11
Multi-Stage$0.17 - $0.19$0.18
Blended Fair Value$0.14
Current Price$5.07
Upside-97.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-48.92%-20.67%0.000.010.010.030.020.080.080.060.040.02
YoY Growth---62.49%-23.11%-66.72%44.05%-74.85%2.97%28.78%66.22%135.23%-45.23%
Dividend Yield--0.07%0.11%0.10%0.21%0.67%3.19%1.64%0.74%0.33%0.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)55.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)53.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.026.894.13
Cash Retained (M)53.0853.0853.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.02-6.89-4.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)42.0646.1948.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,064.821,064.821,064.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.050.05
WACC / Discount Rate9.91%9.91%9.91%
Growth Rate-22.67%-21.67%-20.67%
Fair Value$0.10$0.11$0.12
Upside / Downside-98.06%-97.78%-97.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)55.1143.1733.8126.4920.7516.2516.74
Payout Ratio3.68%20.94%38.21%55.47%72.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.039.0412.9214.6915.0914.6315.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.91%9.91%9.91%
Growth Rate-22.67%-21.67%-20.67%
Year 1 PV (M)8.128.238.33
Year 2 PV (M)10.4210.6910.97
Year 3 PV (M)10.6511.0711.49
Year 4 PV (M)9.8210.3410.88
Year 5 PV (M)8.559.129.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)130.98139.67148.82
Equity Value (M)178.55189.12200.21
Shares Outstanding (M)1,064.821,064.821,064.82
Fair Value$0.17$0.18$0.19
Upside / Downside-96.69%-96.50%-96.29%

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