Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Ningbo David Medical Device Co., Ltd. (300314.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.50 - $9.82$6.45
Multi-Stage$3.33 - $3.63$3.48
Blended Fair Value$4.96
Current Price$13.88
Upside-64.23%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.87%15.01%0.180.150.100.150.040.090.050.060.040.06
YoY Growth--20.00%50.00%-33.33%275.00%-55.56%80.00%-16.67%50.00%-28.00%25.00%
Dividend Yield--1.46%1.28%0.62%1.22%0.25%0.81%0.49%0.46%0.21%0.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)66.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)41.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.318.324.99
Cash Retained (M)41.5241.5241.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.31-8.32-4.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)28.2033.2036.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)287.93287.93287.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.50$6.45$9.82
Upside / Downside-67.61%-53.54%-29.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)66.5770.9075.5180.4285.6491.2193.95
Payout Ratio37.64%48.11%58.58%69.05%79.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25.0634.1144.2355.5368.1182.0986.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)30.7631.0531.35
Year 2 PV (M)35.9836.6637.36
Year 3 PV (M)40.7341.9043.09
Year 4 PV (M)45.0646.7948.57
Year 5 PV (M)48.9851.3453.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)757.83794.43832.43
Equity Value (M)959.331,002.181,046.60
Shares Outstanding (M)287.93287.93287.93
Fair Value$3.33$3.48$3.63
Upside / Downside-76.00%-74.92%-73.81%

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