Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.,Ltd (300124.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$325.46 - $383.44$359.34
Multi-Stage$218.81 - $240.15$229.28
Blended Fair Value$294.31
Current Price$83.82
Upside251.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.44%13.04%0.490.420.330.250.140.150.190.180.150.15
YoY Growth--18.15%25.47%34.23%80.82%-6.58%-23.11%8.08%19.36%1.50%0.68%
Dividend Yield--0.72%0.68%0.47%0.43%0.24%0.85%0.99%0.75%1.01%1.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,185.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,205.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,980.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,037.16648.22388.93
Cash Retained (M)3,980.303,980.303,980.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,037.16-648.22-388.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,943.153,332.083,591.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,689.652,689.652,689.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.091.241.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.091.241.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.541.691.78
WACC / Discount Rate2.51%2.51%2.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$325.46$359.34$383.44
Upside / Downside288.28%328.71%357.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,185.805,522.875,881.866,264.186,671.357,104.997,318.14
Payout Ratio23.25%36.60%49.95%63.30%76.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,205.492,021.202,937.853,965.135,113.546,394.496,769.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.51%2.51%2.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,953.161,971.671,990.19
Year 2 PV (M)2,743.402,795.652,848.40
Year 3 PV (M)3,578.043,680.763,785.42
Year 4 PV (M)4,459.024,630.504,806.89
Year 5 PV (M)5,388.325,648.585,918.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)570,414.02597,965.23626,570.89
Equity Value (M)588,535.97616,692.40645,920.58
Shares Outstanding (M)2,689.652,689.652,689.65
Fair Value$218.81$229.28$240.15
Upside / Downside161.05%173.54%186.51%

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