Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Sanchuan Wisdom Technology Co., Ltd. (300066.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.11 - $26.05$24.41
Multi-Stage$15.56 - $17.08$16.30
Blended Fair Value$20.36
Current Price$6.38
Upside219.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.74%14.49%0.060.030.030.040.050.020.020.020.030.02
YoY Growth--93.43%0.00%-25.00%-20.36%151.15%0.00%0.00%-37.50%33.37%59.99%
Dividend Yield--1.39%0.74%0.50%0.81%1.11%0.42%0.41%0.44%0.50%0.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)136.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)100.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.2317.0210.21
Cash Retained (M)100.43100.43100.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.23-17.02-10.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)73.2083.4290.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,039.461,039.461,039.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate1.58%1.58%1.58%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22.11$24.41$26.05
Upside / Downside246.55%282.63%308.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)136.15145.00154.43164.46175.15186.54192.14
Payout Ratio26.23%38.99%51.74%64.49%77.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.7256.5379.90106.07135.30167.89177.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.58%1.58%1.58%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)55.1355.6556.17
Year 2 PV (M)75.9877.4378.89
Year 3 PV (M)98.37101.19104.07
Year 4 PV (M)122.37127.07131.91
Year 5 PV (M)148.07155.22162.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,674.6616,431.7517,217.82
Equity Value (M)16,174.5816,948.3217,751.52
Shares Outstanding (M)1,039.461,039.461,039.46
Fair Value$15.56$16.30$17.08
Upside / Downside143.90%155.56%167.67%

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