Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing Ultrapower Software Co., Ltd. (300002.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.12 - $21.49$14.37
Multi-Stage$7.21 - $7.88$7.54
Blended Fair Value$10.95
Current Price$14.27
Upside-23.24%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.10%-2.80%0.060.030.030.010.020.020.040.050.060.08
YoY Growth--96.97%6.87%387.06%-63.96%-20.37%-45.18%-23.68%-11.28%-34.09%4.50%
Dividend Yield--0.45%0.31%0.30%0.13%0.35%0.56%0.68%0.69%0.58%0.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,058.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,057.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)211.68132.3079.38
Cash Retained (M)1,057.011,057.011,057.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-211.68-132.30-79.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)845.34924.72977.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,965.791,965.791,965.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.430.470.50
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.430.470.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.50
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.12$14.37$21.49
Upside / Downside-29.11%0.69%50.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,058.391,127.181,200.451,278.481,361.581,450.081,493.58
Payout Ratio0.13%18.10%36.08%54.05%72.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.37204.06433.10691.04980.691,305.071,381.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)183.78185.52187.27
Year 2 PV (M)351.29357.98364.74
Year 3 PV (M)504.81519.30534.07
Year 4 PV (M)645.21670.02695.55
Year 5 PV (M)773.30810.65849.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,708.2412,273.7612,860.91
Equity Value (M)14,166.6414,817.2415,491.96
Shares Outstanding (M)1,965.791,965.791,965.79
Fair Value$7.21$7.54$7.88
Upside / Downside-49.50%-47.18%-44.77%

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