Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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HDC Hyundai Development Company (294870.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27,689.66 - $42,847.37$34,717.99
Multi-Stage$62,017.60 - $68,340.32$65,116.52
Blended Fair Value$49,917.26
Current Price$20,350.00
Upside145.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820162015
DPS15.38%0.00%696.10612.73612.73612.73340.38340.380.00380.940.000.00
YoY Growth--13.61%0.00%0.00%80.01%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.48%3.47%5.43%4.06%1.16%2.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)191,890.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)44,918.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)146,971.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)38,378.0123,986.2614,391.76
Cash Retained (M)146,971.54146,971.54146,971.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-38,378.01-23,986.26-14,391.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)108,593.53122,985.28132,579.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)64.5364.5364.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share1,682.881,905.912,054.59
LTM Dividend per Share696.10696.10696.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share1,682.881,905.912,054.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend2,378.982,602.012,750.70
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$27,689.66$34,717.99$42,847.37
Upside / Downside36.07%70.60%110.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)191,890.07189,971.17188,071.46186,190.75184,328.84182,485.55187,960.12
Payout Ratio23.41%36.73%50.05%63.36%76.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)44,918.5369,770.2994,120.52117,976.77141,346.48164,237.00173,863.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)64,899.1765,561.4166,223.64
Year 2 PV (M)81,436.9683,107.4284,794.84
Year 3 PV (M)94,951.6297,888.06100,884.43
Year 4 PV (M)105,817.99110,203.65114,724.24
Year 5 PV (M)114,370.53120,326.07126,527.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,540,426.493,724,784.713,916,744.14
Equity Value (M)4,001,902.754,201,871.304,409,898.44
Shares Outstanding (M)64.5364.5364.53
Fair Value$62,017.60$65,116.52$68,340.32
Upside / Downside204.75%219.98%235.82%

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