Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Simple Mart Retail Co., Ltd. (2945.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.22 - $29.84$24.13
Multi-Stage$45.02 - $49.54$47.24
Blended Fair Value$35.68
Current Price$39.75
Upside-10.23%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-11.57%0.00%1.190.732.582.410.562.210.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--64.38%-71.85%6.89%332.01%-74.69%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.12%1.61%6.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)138.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)81.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)57.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.6917.3110.39
Cash Retained (M)57.4757.4757.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.69-17.31-10.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)29.7840.1647.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)67.8467.8467.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.440.590.69
LTM Dividend per Share1.191.191.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.440.590.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.631.791.89
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$19.22$24.13$29.84
Upside / Downside-51.65%-39.29%-24.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)138.47137.09135.72134.36133.01131.68135.64
Payout Ratio58.50%64.80%71.10%77.40%83.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)81.0088.8396.49103.99111.33118.52125.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)82.7083.5484.39
Year 2 PV (M)83.6385.3587.08
Year 3 PV (M)83.9186.5189.16
Year 4 PV (M)83.6487.1190.68
Year 5 PV (M)82.8987.2191.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,637.602,774.942,917.95
Equity Value (M)3,054.383,204.663,360.96
Shares Outstanding (M)67.8467.8467.84
Fair Value$45.02$47.24$49.54
Upside / Downside13.26%18.83%24.63%

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