Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ajinomoto Co., Inc. (2802.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9,866.70 - $20,812.04$19,503.93
Multi-Stage$3,192.46 - $3,493.10$3,340.02
Blended Fair Value$11,421.98
Current Price$3,909.00
Upside192.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS17.39%12.69%52.1651.1842.1536.3523.3623.4024.6022.7422.9821.30
YoY Growth--1.90%21.42%15.98%55.61%-0.17%-4.88%8.15%-1.03%7.88%34.81%
Dividend Yield--1.33%1.78%1.47%2.20%1.62%2.61%2.63%2.17%1.89%1.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)78,522.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39,428.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)39,094.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15,704.409,815.255,889.15
Cash Retained (M)39,094.0039,094.0039,094.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-15,704.40-9,815.25-5,889.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)23,389.6029,278.7533,204.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)750.34750.34750.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share31.1739.0244.25
LTM Dividend per Share52.5552.5552.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share31.1739.0244.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend83.7291.5796.80
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9,866.70$19,503.93$20,812.04
Upside / Downside152.41%398.95%432.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)78,522.0083,625.9389,061.6294,850.62101,015.91107,581.94110,809.40
Payout Ratio50.21%58.17%66.13%74.09%82.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39,428.0048,645.3258,894.3270,270.1582,876.0196,823.75102,498.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)45,292.0645,721.3646,150.67
Year 2 PV (M)51,054.6552,027.0953,008.71
Year 3 PV (M)56,717.0658,345.2060,004.21
Year 4 PV (M)62,280.5864,675.7167,139.27
Year 5 PV (M)67,746.4671,018.6474,416.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,112,329.302,214,355.592,320,286.67
Equity Value (M)2,395,420.102,506,143.602,621,005.60
Shares Outstanding (M)750.34750.34750.34
Fair Value$3,192.46$3,340.02$3,493.10
Upside / Downside-18.33%-14.56%-10.64%

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