Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Life Travel & Tourist Service Co., Ltd. (2745.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$75.60 - $115.55$94.28
Multi-Stage$161.89 - $178.17$169.87
Blended Fair Value$132.08
Current Price$136.50
Upside-3.24%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%3.480.000.000.000.260.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.80%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)287.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)118.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)168.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)57.4435.9021.54
Cash Retained (M)168.86168.86168.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-57.44-35.90-21.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)111.42132.96147.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)33.9633.9633.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.283.924.34
LTM Dividend per Share3.483.483.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.283.924.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.777.407.82
WACC / Discount Rate6.77%6.77%6.77%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$75.60$94.28$115.55
Upside / Downside-44.61%-30.93%-15.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)287.19284.32281.47278.66275.87273.11281.31
Payout Ratio41.20%50.96%60.72%70.48%80.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)118.33144.89170.92196.40221.36245.80260.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.77%6.77%6.77%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)134.34135.71137.08
Year 2 PV (M)146.91149.93152.97
Year 3 PV (M)156.52161.36166.30
Year 4 PV (M)163.56170.34177.32
Year 5 PV (M)168.38177.15186.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,727.884,974.075,230.41
Equity Value (M)5,497.595,768.556,050.36
Shares Outstanding (M)33.9633.9633.96
Fair Value$161.89$169.87$178.17
Upside / Downside18.60%24.45%30.53%

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