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Definitive Analysis

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Samyang Packaging Corporation (272550.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8,885.07 - $13,802.12$11,158.95
Multi-Stage$20,754.73 - $22,844.42$21,779.04
Blended Fair Value$16,468.99
Current Price$13,410.00
Upside22.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.13%0.00%507.41761.11913.33913.33685.00456.660.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---33.33%-16.67%0.00%33.33%50.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.67%4.23%4.82%3.97%2.74%3.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14,664.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,665.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,998.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,932.861,833.041,099.82
Cash Retained (M)6,998.826,998.826,998.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,932.86-1,833.04-1,099.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,065.965,165.785,899.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15.5615.5615.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share261.34332.03379.16
LTM Dividend per Share492.70492.70492.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share261.34332.03379.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend754.03824.72871.85
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$8,885.07$11,158.95$13,802.12
Upside / Downside-33.74%-16.79%2.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14,664.3114,517.6614,372.4914,228.7614,086.4713,945.6114,363.98
Payout Ratio52.27%59.82%67.36%74.91%82.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,665.498,684.249,681.8610,658.6611,614.9512,551.0513,286.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)8,085.768,168.278,250.78
Year 2 PV (M)8,393.388,565.558,739.46
Year 3 PV (M)8,603.398,869.459,140.95
Year 4 PV (M)8,729.189,090.969,463.88
Year 5 PV (M)8,782.649,239.979,716.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)280,313.00294,909.54310,107.92
Equity Value (M)322,907.34338,843.75355,419.14
Shares Outstanding (M)15.5615.5615.56
Fair Value$20,754.73$21,779.04$22,844.42
Upside / Downside54.77%62.41%70.35%

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