Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Gushengtang Holdings Limited (2273.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.15 - $33.79$27.61
Multi-Stage$46.07 - $50.76$48.37
Blended Fair Value$37.99
Current Price$31.33
Upside21.25%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.110.360.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---68.52%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.36%0.80%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)617.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)117.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)499.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)123.4977.1846.31
Cash Retained (M)499.88499.88499.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-123.49-77.18-46.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)376.39422.70453.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)247.48247.48247.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.521.711.83
LTM Dividend per Share0.470.470.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.521.711.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.002.182.31
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$22.15$27.61$33.79
Upside / Downside-29.29%-11.89%7.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)617.43611.25605.14599.09593.10587.17604.78
Payout Ratio19.04%33.23%47.42%61.62%75.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)117.55203.12286.98369.13449.61528.45559.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)188.22190.14192.06
Year 2 PV (M)246.41251.46256.57
Year 3 PV (M)293.69302.77312.04
Year 4 PV (M)331.47345.21359.37
Year 5 PV (M)361.01379.81399.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,981.5110,501.2711,042.46
Equity Value (M)11,402.3011,970.6612,561.88
Shares Outstanding (M)247.48247.48247.48
Fair Value$46.07$48.37$50.76
Upside / Downside47.06%54.39%62.01%

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