Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Chicmax Cosmetic Co., Ltd. (2145.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.94 - $60.24$48.81
Multi-Stage$90.01 - $99.00$94.42
Blended Fair Value$71.61
Current Price$74.80
Upside-4.26%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%1.310.450.500.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--191.51%-10.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.01%1.85%1.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,665.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,069.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)595.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)333.10208.19124.91
Cash Retained (M)595.51595.51595.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-333.10-208.19-124.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)262.41387.32470.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)397.98397.98397.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.660.971.18
LTM Dividend per Share2.692.692.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.660.971.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.353.663.87
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$38.94$48.81$60.24
Upside / Downside-47.95%-34.74%-19.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,665.501,648.841,632.361,616.031,599.871,583.871,631.39
Payout Ratio64.24%69.40%74.55%79.70%84.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,069.991,144.231,216.871,287.941,357.471,425.491,509.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,064.271,075.131,085.99
Year 2 PV (M)1,052.751,074.351,096.16
Year 3 PV (M)1,036.381,068.431,101.14
Year 4 PV (M)1,016.011,058.111,101.52
Year 5 PV (M)992.361,044.031,097.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,658.6932,255.1633,917.45
Equity Value (M)35,820.4637,575.2239,400.10
Shares Outstanding (M)397.98397.98397.98
Fair Value$90.01$94.42$99.00
Upside / Downside20.33%26.22%32.35%

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