Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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China Lesso Group Holdings Limited (2128.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.21 - $17.48$14.10
Multi-Stage$22.66 - $24.96$23.79
Blended Fair Value$18.95
Current Price$3.82
Upside396.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.34%6.62%0.180.270.210.420.360.280.230.130.110.10
YoY Growth---32.59%28.12%-49.21%16.71%26.36%21.17%73.95%21.24%6.39%7.92%
Dividend Yield--5.59%7.61%2.93%4.55%3.48%3.16%6.75%3.08%2.45%2.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,604.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)571.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,033.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)720.85450.53270.32
Cash Retained (M)3,033.153,033.153,033.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-720.85-450.53-270.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,312.302,582.622,762.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,079.433,079.433,079.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.750.840.90
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.750.840.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.941.021.08
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-1.49%-0.49%0.51%
Fair Value$11.21$14.10$17.48
Upside / Downside193.57%269.24%357.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,604.263,586.683,569.203,551.803,534.483,517.253,622.76
Payout Ratio15.85%30.68%45.51%60.34%75.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)571.101,100.261,624.242,143.092,656.833,165.523,351.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-1.49%-0.49%0.51%
Year 1 PV (M)1,020.451,030.801,041.16
Year 2 PV (M)1,397.141,425.651,454.45
Year 3 PV (M)1,709.721,762.321,815.98
Year 4 PV (M)1,965.832,046.872,130.40
Year 5 PV (M)2,172.312,284.832,401.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)61,523.1964,709.8468,027.19
Equity Value (M)69,788.6473,260.3176,871.14
Shares Outstanding (M)3,079.433,079.433,079.43
Fair Value$22.66$23.79$24.96
Upside / Downside493.27%522.78%553.48%

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