Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Luhai Holding Corp. (2115.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.10 - $42.57$32.71
Multi-Stage$30.00 - $32.93$31.44
Blended Fair Value$32.08
Current Price$26.60
Upside20.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.93%11.39%0.951.241.901.301.810.781.180.711.571.49
YoY Growth---23.08%-35.00%46.67%-28.41%131.00%-33.33%65.04%-54.55%4.93%362.00%
Dividend Yield--3.20%4.36%6.13%3.47%4.25%2.67%4.04%2.26%3.90%4.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)211.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)210.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)42.2426.4015.84
Cash Retained (M)210.53210.53210.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-42.24-26.40-15.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)168.29184.13194.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)104.60104.60104.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.611.761.86
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.611.761.86
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.621.771.87
WACC / Discount Rate8.49%8.49%8.49%
Growth Rate1.93%2.93%3.93%
Fair Value$25.10$32.71$42.57
Upside / Downside-5.63%22.97%60.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)211.19217.39223.76230.33237.08244.04251.36
Payout Ratio0.32%18.25%36.19%54.13%72.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.6739.6880.98124.67170.85219.63232.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.49%8.49%8.49%
Growth Rate1.93%2.93%3.93%
Year 1 PV (M)36.2236.5736.93
Year 2 PV (M)67.4768.8070.14
Year 3 PV (M)94.8097.62100.50
Year 4 PV (M)118.59123.31128.18
Year 5 PV (M)139.15146.11153.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,681.932,816.092,955.57
Equity Value (M)3,138.163,288.513,444.66
Shares Outstanding (M)104.60104.60104.60
Fair Value$30.00$31.44$32.93
Upside / Downside12.79%18.20%23.81%

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