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Definitive Analysis

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Kolmar BNH Co., Ltd. (200130.KQ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44,715.67 - $97,679.31$91,539.81
Multi-Stage$14,954.23 - $16,355.53$15,642.05
Blended Fair Value$53,590.93
Current Price$14,480.00
Upside270.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.74%35.73%313.97322.39401.89330.41260.74206.51165.20134.2364.530.00
YoY Growth---2.61%-19.78%21.63%26.72%26.27%25.00%23.08%108.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.59%2.05%1.70%1.01%0.47%0.89%0.56%0.42%0.38%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14,052.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,729.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,322.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,810.491,756.551,053.93
Cash Retained (M)5,322.605,322.605,322.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,810.49-1,756.55-1,053.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,512.113,566.054,268.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)28.6128.6128.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share87.80124.64149.20
LTM Dividend per Share305.12305.12305.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share87.80124.64149.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend392.93429.76454.32
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$44,715.67$91,539.81$97,679.31
Upside / Downside208.81%532.18%574.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14,052.4414,965.8415,938.6216,974.6318,077.9919,253.0619,830.65
Payout Ratio62.12%67.70%73.27%78.85%84.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,729.8410,131.6711,678.8613,384.3815,262.2817,327.7518,343.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)9,430.449,519.839,609.22
Year 2 PV (M)10,118.1810,310.9010,505.44
Year 3 PV (M)10,793.2111,103.0511,418.76
Year 4 PV (M)11,455.7311,896.2812,349.42
Year 5 PV (M)12,105.8812,690.5913,297.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)373,948.41392,010.26410,763.38
Equity Value (M)427,851.84447,530.91467,943.90
Shares Outstanding (M)28.6128.6128.61
Fair Value$14,954.23$15,642.05$16,355.53
Upside / Downside3.28%8.03%12.95%

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