Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Toenec Corporation (1946.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26,872.18 - $31,673.33$29,676.35
Multi-Stage$17,232.91 - $18,955.09$18,077.55
Blended Fair Value$23,876.95
Current Price$1,398.00
Upside1,607.94%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS10.58%14.84%48.1522.1227.1226.1327.1429.1219.0918.0914.0910.06
YoY Growth--117.67%-18.43%3.79%-3.73%-6.80%52.51%5.54%28.44%40.04%-16.68%
Dividend Yield--3.94%1.86%3.77%3.73%3.76%3.91%3.03%2.72%2.02%1.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15,117.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,307.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,810.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,023.401,889.631,133.78
Cash Retained (M)13,810.0013,810.0013,810.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,023.40-1,889.63-1,133.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)10,786.6011,920.3812,676.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)92.8592.8592.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share116.17128.38136.52
LTM Dividend per Share14.0814.0814.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share116.17128.38136.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend130.24142.45150.59
WACC / Discount Rate1.60%1.60%1.60%
Growth Rate3.16%4.16%5.16%
Fair Value$26,872.18$29,676.35$31,673.33
Upside / Downside1,822.19%2,022.77%2,165.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15,117.0015,746.0816,401.3417,083.8717,794.8018,535.3219,091.38
Payout Ratio8.65%24.92%41.19%57.46%73.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,307.003,923.416,755.319,816.1113,119.9616,681.7917,659.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.60%1.60%1.60%
Growth Rate3.16%4.16%5.16%
Year 1 PV (M)3,824.493,861.563,898.63
Year 2 PV (M)6,418.976,544.026,670.27
Year 3 PV (M)9,092.219,359.199,631.34
Year 4 PV (M)11,846.0212,312.0612,791.72
Year 5 PV (M)14,682.2415,407.7916,161.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,554,278.531,631,085.581,710,899.49
Equity Value (M)1,600,142.451,678,570.191,760,053.20
Shares Outstanding (M)92.8592.8592.85
Fair Value$17,232.91$18,077.55$18,955.09
Upside / Downside1,132.68%1,193.10%1,255.87%

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