Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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IVD Medical Holding Limited (1931.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DistributionSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.76 - $4.25$3.45
Multi-Stage$6.17 - $6.79$6.47
Blended Fair Value$4.96
Current Price$2.01
Upside146.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-9.28%0.00%0.100.050.040.030.060.160.000.010.020.00
YoY Growth--84.39%44.15%5.00%-41.00%-62.67%0.00%-100.00%-68.60%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.72%3.12%2.10%1.32%3.28%5.66%0.00%0.22%0.65%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)434.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)167.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)266.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)86.9454.3432.60
Cash Retained (M)266.71266.71266.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-86.94-54.34-32.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)179.77212.37234.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,456.031,456.031,456.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.150.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.150.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.260.28
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.76$3.45$4.25
Upside / Downside37.11%71.71%111.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)434.69430.35426.04421.78417.56413.39425.79
Payout Ratio38.64%48.92%59.19%69.46%79.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)167.99210.51252.16292.96332.92372.05393.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)195.68197.67199.67
Year 2 PV (M)217.88222.35226.86
Year 3 PV (M)235.30242.57250.00
Year 4 PV (M)248.55258.85269.47
Year 5 PV (M)258.19271.64285.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,824.178,231.598,655.81
Equity Value (M)8,979.769,424.679,887.45
Shares Outstanding (M)1,456.031,456.031,456.03
Fair Value$6.17$6.47$6.79
Upside / Downside206.83%222.03%237.85%

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