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Precious Dragon Technology Holdings Limited (1861.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.27 - $6.45$5.30
Multi-Stage$8.39 - $9.24$8.81
Blended Fair Value$7.05
Current Price$1.11
Upside535.45%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS29.23%0.00%0.050.040.020.030.040.010.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--14.73%149.18%-37.02%-36.76%216.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.60%1.98%2.03%1.17%2.06%0.78%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)116.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)101.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.3914.628.77
Cash Retained (M)101.11101.11101.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.39-14.62-8.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)77.7286.4992.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)233.92233.92233.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.370.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.370.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.440.46
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.27$5.30$6.45
Upside / Downside285.00%377.43%480.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)116.97115.80114.64113.49112.36111.24114.57
Payout Ratio13.56%28.85%44.13%59.42%74.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.8633.4050.6067.4483.95100.11105.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)30.8531.1731.48
Year 2 PV (M)43.1644.0544.94
Year 3 PV (M)53.1454.7956.46
Year 4 PV (M)61.1063.6366.24
Year 5 PV (M)67.3070.8074.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,706.921,795.801,888.35
Equity Value (M)1,962.482,060.242,161.93
Shares Outstanding (M)233.92233.92233.92
Fair Value$8.39$8.81$9.24
Upside / Downside655.82%693.47%732.64%

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