Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Xin Yuan Enterprises Group Limited (1748.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.54 - $0.83$0.67
Multi-Stage$1.22 - $1.34$1.28
Blended Fair Value$0.97
Current Price$0.52
Upside88.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.040.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.71%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)25.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.113.201.92
Cash Retained (M)9.549.549.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.11-3.20-1.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.426.347.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)440.00440.00440.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.050.05
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.54$0.67$0.83
Upside / Downside3.81%29.98%60.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)25.5625.3125.0524.8024.5524.3125.04
Payout Ratio62.70%68.16%73.62%79.08%84.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16.0317.2518.4419.6120.7621.8823.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)16.0316.1916.36
Year 2 PV (M)15.9316.2616.59
Year 3 PV (M)15.7516.2316.73
Year 4 PV (M)15.4916.1316.79
Year 5 PV (M)15.1715.9616.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)457.94481.79506.61
Equity Value (M)536.31562.57589.87
Shares Outstanding (M)440.00440.00440.00
Fair Value$1.22$1.28$1.34
Upside / Downside136.35%147.92%159.95%

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