Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Shinkong Synthetic Fibers Corporation (1409.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.97 - $46.69$31.22
Multi-Stage$31.80 - $34.90$33.32
Blended Fair Value$32.27
Current Price$14.15
Upside128.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.34%4.14%0.561.021.431.120.560.870.510.250.250.44
YoY Growth---45.00%-28.57%27.27%100.00%-35.29%70.00%100.00%0.00%-41.94%17.48%
Dividend Yield--4.12%6.44%7.92%5.35%3.20%8.66%3.68%2.64%2.59%4.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,925.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)971.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)954.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)385.11240.70144.42
Cash Retained (M)954.53954.53954.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-385.11-240.70-144.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)569.41713.83810.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,589.411,589.411,589.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.450.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.610.610.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.450.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.971.061.12
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate1.84%2.84%3.84%
Fair Value$21.97$31.22$46.69
Upside / Downside55.28%120.61%229.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,925.571,980.322,036.622,094.532,154.082,215.322,281.78
Payout Ratio50.43%58.34%66.26%74.17%82.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)971.051,155.381,349.411,553.551,768.191,993.792,110.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate1.84%2.84%3.84%
Year 1 PV (M)1,075.981,086.541,097.11
Year 2 PV (M)1,170.311,193.401,216.73
Year 3 PV (M)1,254.751,292.081,330.13
Year 4 PV (M)1,329.971,382.981,437.56
Year 5 PV (M)1,396.591,466.511,539.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)44,323.3046,542.5148,849.74
Equity Value (M)50,550.8952,964.0355,470.48
Shares Outstanding (M)1,589.411,589.411,589.41
Fair Value$31.80$33.32$34.90
Upside / Downside124.77%135.50%146.64%

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