Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Esker S.A. (0RSL.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$111.83 - $267.15$165.38
Multi-Stage$79.25 - $86.55$82.84
Blended Fair Value$124.11
Current Price$180.50
Upside-31.24%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS20.72%21.19%0.740.580.480.310.370.290.270.250.200.14
YoY Growth--26.64%22.71%52.80%-15.24%27.39%7.53%5.35%28.31%37.74%33.08%
Dividend Yield--0.48%0.37%0.13%0.18%0.40%0.49%0.52%0.57%0.63%0.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)31.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)23.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.363.972.38
Cash Retained (M)23.3323.3323.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.36-3.97-2.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.9719.3620.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6.086.086.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.793.183.45
LTM Dividend per Share1.391.391.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.793.183.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.184.574.84
WACC / Discount Rate9.45%9.45%9.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$111.83$165.38$267.15
Upside / Downside-38.05%-8.38%48.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)31.7933.8536.0538.4040.8943.5544.86
Payout Ratio26.60%39.28%51.96%64.64%77.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.4613.3018.7324.8231.6239.2041.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.45%9.45%9.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)12.0412.1512.27
Year 2 PV (M)15.3515.6415.94
Year 3 PV (M)18.4018.9319.47
Year 4 PV (M)21.2222.0422.88
Year 5 PV (M)23.8124.9626.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)391.03409.91429.52
Equity Value (M)481.85503.64526.23
Shares Outstanding (M)6.086.086.08
Fair Value$79.25$82.84$86.55
Upside / Downside-56.09%-54.11%-52.05%

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