Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $11.19 - $16.27 | $13.65 |
| Multi-Stage | $18.05 - $19.80 | $18.91 |
| Blended Fair Value | $16.28 | |
| Current Price | $24.60 | |
| Upside | -33.82% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -0.97% | 1.19% | 0.69 | 0.66 | 0.50 | 0.19 | 0.32 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.72 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 4.17% | 32.41% | 170.19% | -42.09% | -55.87% | 0.00% | 0.64% | 0.97% | 0.98% | 15.20% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.73% | 1.66% | 1.59% | 0.49% | 1.49% | 10.60% | 2.41% | 1.54% | 1.45% | 1.98% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,309.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 584.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 725.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 261.80 | 163.63 | 98.18 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 725.00 | 725.00 | 725.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -261.80 | -163.63 | -98.18 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 463.20 | 561.38 | 626.83 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 867.25 | 867.25 | 867.25 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.53 | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.53 | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.21 | 1.32 | 1.40 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -1.53% | -0.53% | 0.47% |
| Fair Value | $11.19 | $13.65 | $16.27 |
| Upside / Downside | -54.50% | -44.51% | -33.88% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,309.00 | 1,302.11 | 1,295.26 | 1,288.45 | 1,281.67 | 1,274.93 | 1,313.17 |
| Payout Ratio | 44.61% | 53.69% | 62.77% | 71.85% | 80.92% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 584.00 | 699.12 | 813.02 | 925.69 | 1,037.16 | 1,147.43 | 1,214.69 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -1.53% | -0.53% | 0.47% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 634.38 | 640.82 | 647.26 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 669.41 | 683.07 | 696.87 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 691.60 | 712.88 | 734.60 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 703.12 | 732.12 | 762.00 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 705.84 | 742.41 | 780.48 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 12,253.29 | 12,888.21 | 13,549.19 |
| Equity Value (M) | 15,657.62 | 16,399.51 | 17,170.41 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 867.25 | 867.25 | 867.25 |
| Fair Value | $18.05 | $18.91 | $19.80 |
| Upside / Downside | -26.61% | -23.13% | -19.52% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUBB | Hubbell Incorporated | 1.14% | $5.26 | 32.54% |
| MATX | Matson, Inc. | 1.14% | $1.42 | 10.47% |
| SNX | TD SYNNEX Corporation | 1.14% | $1.74 | 18.66% |
| ARMK | Aramark | 1.13% | $0.42 | 33.95% |
| CVLG | Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.25 | 21.30% |
| EQT | EQT Corporation | 1.13% | $0.61 | 21.38% |
| WHD | Cactus, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.53 | 21.20% |
| CFBK | CF Bankshares Inc. | 1.12% | $0.28 | 10.89% |
| LII | Lennox International Inc. | 1.12% | $5.59 | 23.57% |
| ROL | Rollins, Inc. | 1.12% | $0.66 | 61.92% |
| FELE | Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | 1.11% | $1.07 | 34.36% |
| GOLF | Acushnet Holdings Corp. | 1.11% | $0.91 | 24.93% |
| KOP | Koppers Holdings Inc. | 1.11% | $0.30 | 37.27% |
| MWA | Mueller Water Products, Inc. | 1.11% | $0.27 | 21.86% |
| RSG | Republic Services, Inc. | 1.11% | $2.33 | 34.47% |
| 0HOU.L | BorgWarner Inc. | 1.10% | $0.50 | 80.60% |
| 0K3H.L | Motorola Solutions, Inc. | 1.10% | $4.20 | 33.55% |
| FBK | FB Financial Corporation | 1.10% | $0.62 | 32.29% |
| AGCO | AGCO Corporation | 1.09% | $1.16 | 23.05% |
| VRE | Veris Residential, Inc. | 1.09% | $0.16 | 26.28% |
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 1.08% | $1.07 | 12.88% |
| CSV | Carriage Services, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.45 | 14.21% |
| LFUS | Littelfuse, Inc. | 1.08% | $2.83 | 59.57% |
| OSBC | Old Second Bancorp, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.21 | 15.92% |
| TPX | Tempur Sealy International, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.62 | 42.01% |
| WSC | WillScot Holdings Corporation | 1.08% | $0.21 | 17.16% |
| BVH | Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation | 1.07% | $0.80 | 18.69% |
| HNNAZ | Hennessy Advisors, Inc. 4.875% Notes due 2026 | 1.07% | $0.27 | 21.11% |
| HTB | HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.46 | 12.57% |
| ZBH | Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.96 | 23.70% |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | 1.05% | $2.06 | 12.63% |
| NDAQ | Nasdaq, Inc. | 1.05% | $1.01 | 36.06% |
| 0H9N.L | Aecom | 1.04% | $1.00 | 23.78% |
| BODY | The Beachbody Company, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.10 | 1.61% |
| LYTS | LSI Industries Inc. | 1.04% | $0.19 | 24.09% |
| UNTY | Unity Bancorp, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.53 | 10.03% |
| CTVA | Corteva, Inc. | 1.03% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| TJX | The TJX Companies, Inc. | 1.03% | $1.59 | 35.03% |
| ABCB | Ameris Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.76 | 13.03% |
| CRAI | CRA International, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.05 | 23.94% |
| CTA-PB | E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company | 1.02% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| FNWD | Finward Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.36 | 33.06% |
| HSII | Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc. | 1.02% | $0.60 | 34.74% |
| LNG | Cheniere Energy, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.02 | 11.09% |
| 0HTG.L | Cardinal Health, Inc. | 1.01% | $2.07 | 31.03% |
| 0I4X.L | Crown Holdings, Inc. | 1.01% | $1.03 | 12.58% |
| CMC | Commercial Metals Company | 1.01% | $0.72 | 96.19% |
| TR | Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. | 1.01% | $0.36 | 27.67% |
| KNX | Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. | 1.00% | $0.52 | 59.68% |
| PNFP | Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. | 1.00% | $0.96 | 11.84% |