Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Forbo Holding AG (0QKD.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$915.38 - $1,336.03$1,118.60
Multi-Stage$1,856.63 - $2,042.72$1,947.85
Blended Fair Value$1,533.22
Current Price$824.00
Upside86.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.87%2.10%24.9823.1425.0522.2926.1223.9223.0023.0720.6521.51
YoY Growth--7.98%-7.65%12.42%-14.67%9.20%4.01%-0.31%11.68%-3.96%5.94%
Dividend Yield--3.31%2.20%2.30%1.19%1.72%1.45%1.68%1.53%1.57%1.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)173.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)102.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.6821.6813.01
Cash Retained (M)102.90102.90102.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.68-21.68-13.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)68.2281.2389.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.411.411.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share48.4257.6563.80
LTM Dividend per Share50.0450.0450.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share48.4257.6563.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend98.46107.69113.84
WACC / Discount Rate7.56%7.56%7.56%
Growth Rate-2.89%-1.89%-0.89%
Fair Value$915.38$1,118.60$1,336.03
Upside / Downside11.09%35.75%62.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)173.40170.12166.91163.76160.66157.63162.36
Payout Ratio40.66%50.53%60.39%70.26%80.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70.5085.96100.80115.06128.74141.87150.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.56%7.56%7.56%
Growth Rate-2.89%-1.89%-0.89%
Year 1 PV (M)79.1079.9280.73
Year 2 PV (M)85.3787.1488.92
Year 3 PV (M)89.6892.4895.33
Year 4 PV (M)92.3496.20100.18
Year 5 PV (M)93.6498.56103.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,175.792,290.152,409.26
Equity Value (M)2,615.922,744.442,878.12
Shares Outstanding (M)1.411.411.41
Fair Value$1,856.63$1,947.85$2,042.72
Upside / Downside125.32%136.39%147.90%

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