Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $57.84 - $117.36 | $80.80 |
| Multi-Stage | $52.87 - $57.67 | $55.23 |
| Blended Fair Value | $68.02 | |
| Current Price | $80.65 | |
| Upside | -15.67% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 8.24% | 7.67% | 2.03 | 1.89 | 1.75 | 1.61 | 1.48 | 1.37 | 1.26 | 1.24 | 1.17 | 1.05 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 7.60% | 7.91% | 8.24% | 9.23% | 8.22% | 8.36% | 1.25% | 5.95% | 12.19% | 8.04% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.87% | 3.54% | 2.59% | 2.24% | 2.22% | 2.26% | 2.27% | 2.74% | 2.64% | 2.50% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,915.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,258.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 657.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 383.00 | 239.38 | 143.63 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 657.00 | 657.00 | 657.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -383.00 | -239.38 | -143.63 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 274.00 | 417.63 | 513.38 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 579.25 | 579.25 | 579.25 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.47 | 0.72 | 0.89 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.17 | 2.17 | 2.17 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.47 | 0.72 | 0.89 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2.64 | 2.89 | 3.06 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 4.33% | 5.33% | 6.33% |
| Fair Value | $57.84 | $80.80 | $117.36 |
| Upside / Downside | -28.28% | 0.19% | 45.51% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,915.00 | 2,017.02 | 2,124.47 | 2,237.65 | 2,356.86 | 2,482.42 | 2,556.89 |
| Payout Ratio | 65.69% | 70.55% | 75.42% | 80.28% | 85.14% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,258.00 | 1,423.08 | 1,602.17 | 1,796.31 | 2,006.59 | 2,234.18 | 2,365.12 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 4.33% | 5.33% | 6.33% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,292.02 | 1,304.40 | 1,316.79 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,320.66 | 1,346.10 | 1,371.78 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,344.32 | 1,383.35 | 1,423.13 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,363.39 | 1,416.42 | 1,470.98 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,378.22 | 1,445.55 | 1,515.49 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 23,925.86 | 25,094.72 | 26,308.83 |
| Equity Value (M) | 30,624.46 | 31,990.54 | 33,406.99 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 579.25 | 579.25 | 579.25 |
| Fair Value | $52.87 | $55.23 | $57.67 |
| Upside / Downside | -34.45% | -31.52% | -28.49% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| MATX | Matson, Inc. | 1.14% | $1.42 | 10.47% |
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| ARMK | Aramark | 1.13% | $0.42 | 33.95% |
| CVLG | Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.25 | 21.30% |
| EQT | EQT Corporation | 1.13% | $0.61 | 21.38% |
| WHD | Cactus, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.53 | 21.20% |
| CFBK | CF Bankshares Inc. | 1.12% | $0.28 | 10.89% |
| LII | Lennox International Inc. | 1.12% | $5.59 | 23.57% |
| ROL | Rollins, Inc. | 1.12% | $0.66 | 61.92% |
| FELE | Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | 1.11% | $1.07 | 34.36% |
| GOLF | Acushnet Holdings Corp. | 1.11% | $0.91 | 24.93% |
| KOP | Koppers Holdings Inc. | 1.11% | $0.30 | 37.27% |
| MWA | Mueller Water Products, Inc. | 1.11% | $0.27 | 21.86% |
| RSG | Republic Services, Inc. | 1.11% | $2.33 | 34.47% |
| 0HOU.L | BorgWarner Inc. | 1.10% | $0.50 | 80.60% |
| 0K3H.L | Motorola Solutions, Inc. | 1.10% | $4.20 | 33.55% |
| FBK | FB Financial Corporation | 1.10% | $0.62 | 32.29% |
| AGCO | AGCO Corporation | 1.09% | $1.16 | 23.05% |
| VRE | Veris Residential, Inc. | 1.09% | $0.16 | 26.28% |
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 1.08% | $1.07 | 12.88% |
| CSV | Carriage Services, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.45 | 14.21% |
| LFUS | Littelfuse, Inc. | 1.08% | $2.83 | 59.57% |
| OSBC | Old Second Bancorp, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.21 | 15.92% |
| TPX | Tempur Sealy International, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.62 | 42.01% |
| WSC | WillScot Holdings Corporation | 1.08% | $0.21 | 17.16% |
| BVH | Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation | 1.07% | $0.80 | 18.69% |
| HNNAZ | Hennessy Advisors, Inc. 4.875% Notes due 2026 | 1.07% | $0.27 | 21.11% |
| HTB | HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.46 | 12.57% |
| ZBH | Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.96 | 23.70% |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | 1.05% | $2.06 | 12.63% |
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| BODY | The Beachbody Company, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.10 | 1.61% |
| LYTS | LSI Industries Inc. | 1.04% | $0.19 | 24.09% |
| UNTY | Unity Bancorp, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.53 | 10.03% |
| CTVA | Corteva, Inc. | 1.03% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
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| LNG | Cheniere Energy, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.02 | 11.09% |
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