Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $8.75 - $12.55 | $10.61 |
| Multi-Stage | $14.05 - $15.45 | $14.73 |
| Blended Fair Value | $12.67 | |
| Current Price | $15.51 | |
| Upside | -18.30% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 0.52% | -9.39% | 0.20 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.58 | 1.80 | 1.78 | 0.98 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 290.00% | 5.26% | -75.32% | 1.32% | 0.00% | -66.96% | -67.61% | 1.00% | 80.72% | 86.12% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.07% | 0.26% | 0.35% | 2.01% | 0.71% | 0.53% | 1.54% | 4.76% | 4.71% | 2.61% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 499.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 79.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 420.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 99.80 | 62.38 | 37.43 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 420.00 | 420.00 | 420.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -99.80 | -62.38 | -37.43 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 320.20 | 357.63 | 382.58 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 395.50 | 395.50 | 395.50 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.81 | 0.90 | 0.97 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.81 | 0.90 | 0.97 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.01 | 1.10 | 1.17 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.18% | -1.18% | -0.18% |
| Fair Value | $8.75 | $10.61 | $12.55 |
| Upside / Downside | -43.58% | -31.59% | -19.08% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 499.00 | 493.09 | 487.25 | 481.48 | 475.78 | 470.15 | 484.25 |
| Payout Ratio | 15.83% | 30.67% | 45.50% | 60.33% | 75.17% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 79.00 | 151.21 | 221.69 | 290.49 | 357.63 | 423.13 | 447.93 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.18% | -1.18% | -0.18% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 137.20 | 138.60 | 140.00 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 182.51 | 186.26 | 190.05 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 216.99 | 223.71 | 230.57 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 242.38 | 252.44 | 262.82 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 260.20 | 273.77 | 287.91 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 4,517.05 | 4,752.71 | 4,998.11 |
| Equity Value (M) | 5,556.32 | 5,827.50 | 6,109.46 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 395.50 | 395.50 | 395.50 |
| Fair Value | $14.05 | $14.73 | $15.45 |
| Upside / Downside | -9.42% | -5.00% | -0.40% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUBB | Hubbell Incorporated | 1.14% | $5.26 | 32.54% |
| MATX | Matson, Inc. | 1.14% | $1.42 | 10.47% |
| SNX | TD SYNNEX Corporation | 1.14% | $1.74 | 18.66% |
| ARMK | Aramark | 1.13% | $0.42 | 33.95% |
| CVLG | Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.25 | 21.30% |
| EQT | EQT Corporation | 1.13% | $0.61 | 21.38% |
| WHD | Cactus, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.53 | 21.20% |
| CFBK | CF Bankshares Inc. | 1.12% | $0.28 | 10.89% |
| LII | Lennox International Inc. | 1.12% | $5.59 | 23.57% |
| ROL | Rollins, Inc. | 1.12% | $0.66 | 61.92% |
| FELE | Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | 1.11% | $1.07 | 34.36% |
| GOLF | Acushnet Holdings Corp. | 1.11% | $0.91 | 24.93% |
| KOP | Koppers Holdings Inc. | 1.11% | $0.30 | 37.27% |
| MWA | Mueller Water Products, Inc. | 1.11% | $0.27 | 21.86% |
| RSG | Republic Services, Inc. | 1.11% | $2.33 | 34.47% |
| 0HOU.L | BorgWarner Inc. | 1.10% | $0.50 | 80.60% |
| 0K3H.L | Motorola Solutions, Inc. | 1.10% | $4.20 | 33.55% |
| FBK | FB Financial Corporation | 1.10% | $0.62 | 32.29% |
| AGCO | AGCO Corporation | 1.09% | $1.16 | 23.05% |
| VRE | Veris Residential, Inc. | 1.09% | $0.16 | 26.28% |
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 1.08% | $1.07 | 12.88% |
| CSV | Carriage Services, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.45 | 14.21% |
| LFUS | Littelfuse, Inc. | 1.08% | $2.83 | 59.57% |
| OSBC | Old Second Bancorp, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.21 | 15.92% |
| TPX | Tempur Sealy International, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.62 | 42.01% |
| WSC | WillScot Holdings Corporation | 1.08% | $0.21 | 17.16% |
| BVH | Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation | 1.07% | $0.80 | 18.69% |
| HNNAZ | Hennessy Advisors, Inc. 4.875% Notes due 2026 | 1.07% | $0.27 | 21.11% |
| HTB | HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.46 | 12.57% |
| ZBH | Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.96 | 23.70% |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | 1.05% | $2.06 | 12.63% |
| NDAQ | Nasdaq, Inc. | 1.05% | $1.01 | 36.06% |
| 0H9N.L | Aecom | 1.04% | $1.00 | 23.78% |
| BODY | The Beachbody Company, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.10 | 1.61% |
| LYTS | LSI Industries Inc. | 1.04% | $0.19 | 24.09% |
| UNTY | Unity Bancorp, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.53 | 10.03% |
| CTVA | Corteva, Inc. | 1.03% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| TJX | The TJX Companies, Inc. | 1.03% | $1.59 | 35.03% |
| ABCB | Ameris Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.76 | 13.03% |
| CRAI | CRA International, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.05 | 23.94% |
| CTA-PB | E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company | 1.02% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| FNWD | Finward Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.36 | 33.06% |
| HSII | Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc. | 1.02% | $0.60 | 34.74% |
| LNG | Cheniere Energy, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.02 | 11.09% |
| 0HTG.L | Cardinal Health, Inc. | 1.01% | $2.07 | 31.03% |
| 0I4X.L | Crown Holdings, Inc. | 1.01% | $1.03 | 12.58% |
| CMC | Commercial Metals Company | 1.01% | $0.72 | 96.19% |
| TR | Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. | 1.01% | $0.36 | 27.67% |
| KNX | Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. | 1.00% | $0.52 | 59.68% |
| PNFP | Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. | 1.00% | $0.96 | 11.84% |