Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (0ITL.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - BrokersSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$338.39 - $1,259.49$1,018.26
Multi-Stage$158.36 - $173.21$165.65
Blended Fair Value$591.95
Current Price$309.74
Upside91.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.35%8.94%2.081.871.701.551.371.271.191.121.081.02
YoY Growth--10.94%10.27%9.57%12.84%8.19%6.39%6.76%3.86%5.71%15.42%
Dividend Yield--0.60%0.76%0.89%0.89%1.10%1.56%1.51%1.63%1.90%2.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,601.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)631.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)969.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)320.24200.15120.09
Cash Retained (M)969.90969.90969.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-320.24-200.15-120.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)649.66769.75849.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)252.83252.83252.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.573.043.36
LTM Dividend per Share2.502.502.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.573.043.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.075.545.86
WACC / Discount Rate7.08%7.08%7.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$338.39$1,018.26$1,259.49
Upside / Downside9.25%228.75%306.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,601.201,705.281,816.121,934.172,059.892,193.782,259.60
Payout Ratio39.43%49.54%59.66%69.77%79.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)631.30844.821,083.431,349.481,645.551,974.402,090.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.08%7.08%7.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)781.55788.96796.37
Year 2 PV (M)927.24944.90962.73
Year 3 PV (M)1,068.451,099.131,130.38
Year 4 PV (M)1,205.301,251.651,299.33
Year 5 PV (M)1,337.881,402.501,469.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)34,716.6636,393.4938,134.49
Equity Value (M)40,037.0941,880.6343,792.89
Shares Outstanding (M)252.83252.83252.83
Fair Value$158.36$165.65$173.21
Upside / Downside-48.87%-46.52%-44.08%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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