Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Cognex Corporation (0I14.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.54 - $14.82$11.23
Multi-Stage$9.68 - $10.58$10.12
Blended Fair Value$10.68
Current Price$45.55
Upside-76.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.30%0.00%0.310.290.270.252.290.210.190.170.150.11
YoY Growth--6.62%6.88%6.14%-88.92%1,011.80%10.23%9.74%15.17%39.59%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.03%0.69%0.55%0.32%2.69%0.45%0.35%0.35%0.35%0.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)110.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)54.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)55.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.0213.778.26
Cash Retained (M)55.9955.9955.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.02-13.77-8.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)33.9742.2247.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)170.20170.20170.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.250.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.250.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.60
WACC / Discount Rate8.96%8.96%8.96%
Growth Rate2.74%3.74%4.74%
Fair Value$8.54$11.23$14.82
Upside / Downside-81.26%-75.34%-67.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)110.12114.24118.51122.93127.53132.29136.26
Payout Ratio49.16%57.33%65.49%73.66%81.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)54.1365.4977.6190.56104.36119.06126.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.96%8.96%8.96%
Growth Rate2.74%3.74%4.74%
Year 1 PV (M)59.5260.1060.68
Year 2 PV (M)64.1165.3766.64
Year 3 PV (M)67.9969.9972.04
Year 4 PV (M)71.2174.0276.92
Year 5 PV (M)73.8477.5181.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,310.501,375.541,443.13
Equity Value (M)1,647.181,722.531,800.71
Shares Outstanding (M)170.20170.20170.20
Fair Value$9.68$10.12$10.58
Upside / Downside-78.75%-77.78%-76.77%

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