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Definitive Analysis

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Oriental Watch Holdings Limited (0398.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Luxury GoodsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$51.74 - $122.94$115.21
Multi-Stage$17.85 - $19.55$18.69
Blended Fair Value$66.95
Current Price$3.36
Upside1,892.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.27%49.08%0.480.150.750.710.270.390.400.060.010.00
YoY Growth--228.28%-80.54%5.41%159.75%-29.53%-4.38%538.82%1,100.31%28.61%-53.35%
Dividend Yield--13.45%4.20%17.13%16.95%10.35%25.08%17.11%2.76%0.29%0.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)301.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)58.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)243.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)60.2637.6622.60
Cash Retained (M)243.28243.28243.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-60.26-37.66-22.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)183.03205.62220.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)487.36487.36487.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.380.420.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.380.420.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$51.74$115.21$122.94
Upside / Downside1,439.86%3,329.00%3,558.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)301.28320.86341.72363.93387.58412.78425.16
Payout Ratio19.25%33.40%47.55%61.70%75.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)58.00107.17162.49224.54293.98371.50393.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)99.67100.62101.56
Year 2 PV (M)140.56143.24145.94
Year 3 PV (M)180.66185.84191.13
Year 4 PV (M)219.99228.45237.15
Year 5 PV (M)258.55271.04284.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,801.488,178.308,569.54
Equity Value (M)8,700.929,107.499,529.32
Shares Outstanding (M)487.36487.36487.36
Fair Value$17.85$18.69$19.55
Upside / Downside431.35%456.17%481.94%

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