Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Vitasoy International Holdings Limited (0345.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.94 - $2.70$2.32
Multi-Stage$5.82 - $6.44$6.12
Blended Fair Value$4.22
Current Price$8.44
Upside-49.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-24.34%-6.18%0.100.030.010.290.320.420.350.350.300.24
YoY Growth--267.53%115.81%-95.52%-9.49%-22.92%18.99%0.84%16.90%21.58%24.99%
Dividend Yield--1.03%0.41%0.09%1.95%1.07%1.77%0.91%1.71%1.92%1.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)360.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)132.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)227.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)72.0045.0027.00
Cash Retained (M)227.31227.31227.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-72.00-45.00-27.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)155.31182.31200.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,069.231,069.231,069.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-6.67%-5.67%-4.67%
Fair Value$1.94$2.32$2.70
Upside / Downside-77.05%-72.51%-67.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)360.00339.60320.35302.19285.06268.91276.97
Payout Ratio36.86%47.49%58.12%68.74%79.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)132.69161.27186.17207.74226.26242.02256.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-6.67%-5.67%-4.67%
Year 1 PV (M)150.09151.69153.30
Year 2 PV (M)161.25164.73168.24
Year 3 PV (M)167.46172.90178.46
Year 4 PV (M)169.75177.14184.77
Year 5 PV (M)168.98178.23187.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,404.595,700.406,009.02
Equity Value (M)6,222.126,545.096,881.66
Shares Outstanding (M)1,069.231,069.231,069.23
Fair Value$5.82$6.12$6.44
Upside / Downside-31.05%-27.47%-23.74%

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