Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shindaeyang Paper Co., Ltd. (016590.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$55,573.96 - $140,194.75$131,380.14
Multi-Stage$21,502.76 - $23,551.20$22,508.07
Blended Fair Value$76,944.10
Current Price$12,410.00
Upside520.02%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.59%16.33%166.02151.12153.2987.6895.47115.1650.190.000.0045.66
YoY Growth--9.86%-1.42%74.83%-8.16%-17.09%129.44%0.00%0.00%-100.00%24.78%
Dividend Yield--2.41%2.38%1.80%0.90%1.17%2.22%0.57%0.00%0.00%1.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)21,274.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,010.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)15,264.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,254.902,659.311,595.59
Cash Retained (M)15,264.3115,264.3115,264.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,254.90-2,659.31-1,595.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)11,009.4212,605.0013,668.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)30.1130.1130.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share365.65418.65453.97
LTM Dividend per Share199.61199.61199.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share365.65418.65453.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend565.27618.26653.59
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.25%6.25%7.25%
Fair Value$55,573.96$131,380.14$140,194.75
Upside / Downside347.82%958.66%1,029.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)21,274.4822,604.1424,016.9125,517.9827,112.8628,807.4329,671.65
Payout Ratio28.25%40.60%52.95%65.30%77.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,010.169,177.3912,717.0416,663.3021,053.1725,926.6927,446.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.25%6.25%7.25%
Year 1 PV (M)8,550.568,631.818,713.05
Year 2 PV (M)11,039.2011,249.9711,462.73
Year 3 PV (M)13,476.8513,864.6514,259.82
Year 4 PV (M)15,864.2916,475.8617,104.94
Year 5 PV (M)18,202.2919,083.5919,998.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)580,293.39608,389.60637,563.71
Equity Value (M)647,426.58677,695.48709,102.94
Shares Outstanding (M)30.1130.1130.11
Fair Value$21,502.76$22,508.07$23,551.20
Upside / Downside73.27%81.37%89.78%

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