Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Daechang Forging Co., Ltd. (015230.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$102,144.57 - $249,747.05$234,049.56
Multi-Stage$35,790.56 - $39,206.34$37,466.95
Blended Fair Value$135,758.26
Current Price$6,100.00
Upside2,125.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.53%8.83%184.73205.26149.6597.12118.6078.9591.13103.02103.02160.01
YoY Growth---10.00%37.15%54.09%-18.11%50.22%-13.36%-11.54%0.00%-35.62%101.92%
Dividend Yield--3.91%3.72%2.28%2.13%2.86%4.11%3.30%3.04%2.79%5.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)31,691.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,034.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)27,657.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,338.403,961.502,376.90
Cash Retained (M)27,657.9127,657.9127,657.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,338.40-3,961.50-2,376.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)21,319.5223,696.4125,281.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)25.2425.2425.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share844.79938.971,001.76
LTM Dividend per Share159.85159.85159.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share844.79938.971,001.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend1,004.641,098.821,161.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$102,144.57$234,049.56$249,747.05
Upside / Downside1,574.50%3,736.88%3,994.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)31,691.9833,751.9535,945.8338,282.3140,770.6643,420.7544,723.37
Payout Ratio12.73%28.18%43.64%59.09%74.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,034.069,512.3715,685.8222,621.6330,392.8139,078.6841,369.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)8,844.818,928.659,012.49
Year 2 PV (M)13,561.4713,819.7814,080.52
Year 3 PV (M)18,185.4118,707.4519,239.38
Year 4 PV (M)22,717.9923,591.6624,490.29
Year 5 PV (M)27,160.5628,472.4329,834.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)812,758.17852,014.69892,773.66
Equity Value (M)903,228.42945,534.66989,430.84
Shares Outstanding (M)25.2425.2425.24
Fair Value$35,790.56$37,466.95$39,206.34
Upside / Downside486.73%514.21%542.73%

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