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Definitive Analysis

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Songwon Industrial Co., Ltd. (004430.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25,840.01 - $100,489.45$43,797.37
Multi-Stage$24,081.83 - $26,400.52$25,219.50
Blended Fair Value$34,508.43
Current Price$9,860.00
Upside249.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.34%13.58%250.44500.87200.35120.21150.26160.28140.24140.2470.1260.10
YoY Growth---50.00%150.00%66.67%-20.00%-6.25%14.29%0.00%100.00%16.67%-14.29%
Dividend Yield--2.12%3.54%1.07%0.53%0.74%1.75%0.75%0.46%0.37%0.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)21,432.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,200.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)14,232.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,286.402,679.001,607.40
Cash Retained (M)14,232.0014,232.0014,232.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,286.40-2,679.00-1,607.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,945.6011,553.0012,624.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)23.9623.9623.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share415.12482.21526.94
LTM Dividend per Share300.52300.52300.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share415.12482.21526.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend715.64782.74827.46
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate3.62%4.62%5.62%
Fair Value$25,840.01$43,797.37$100,489.45
Upside / Downside162.07%344.19%919.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)21,432.0022,421.4123,456.5024,539.3725,672.2426,857.4027,663.12
Payout Ratio33.59%44.88%56.16%67.44%78.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,200.0010,061.7713,172.4116,548.8320,208.9124,171.6625,588.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate3.62%4.62%5.62%
Year 1 PV (M)9,358.579,448.899,539.21
Year 2 PV (M)11,395.5711,616.5911,839.73
Year 3 PV (M)13,315.9913,705.2614,102.04
Year 4 PV (M)15,124.6215,717.0016,326.61
Year 5 PV (M)16,826.1017,653.8718,513.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)510,937.65536,073.38562,188.77
Equity Value (M)576,958.51604,214.99632,510.25
Shares Outstanding (M)23.9623.9623.96
Fair Value$24,081.83$25,219.50$26,400.52
Upside / Downside144.24%155.78%167.75%

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