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Definitive Analysis

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Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co., Ltd. (003006.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$61.84 - $135.08$126.59
Multi-Stage$20.92 - $22.87$21.88
Blended Fair Value$74.24
Current Price$26.39
Upside181.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS39.74%8.96%0.550.300.300.300.000.100.160.000.000.00
YoY Growth--83.41%-0.37%0.60%0.00%-100.00%-36.11%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.21%1.79%1.65%2.25%0.00%1.08%1.68%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)293.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)236.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)57.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.7436.7122.03
Cash Retained (M)57.4457.4457.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.74-36.71-22.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.3020.7335.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)432.43432.43432.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.050.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.050.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.63
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$61.84$126.59$135.08
Upside / Downside134.32%379.69%411.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)293.72312.81333.14354.79377.85402.42414.49
Payout Ratio80.44%82.35%84.27%86.18%88.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)236.28257.61280.72305.75332.85362.17383.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)239.78242.05244.33
Year 2 PV (M)243.21247.84252.52
Year 3 PV (M)246.56253.64260.85
Year 4 PV (M)249.83259.44269.32
Year 5 PV (M)253.03265.25277.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,816.028,193.548,585.50
Equity Value (M)9,048.439,461.769,890.46
Shares Outstanding (M)432.43432.43432.43
Fair Value$20.92$21.88$22.87
Upside / Downside-20.71%-17.09%-13.33%

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