Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhongyan Technology Co., Ltd. (003001.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$57.97 - $68.30$64.01
Multi-Stage$44.21 - $48.50$46.31
Blended Fair Value$55.16
Current Price$22.81
Upside141.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.12%21.59%0.110.140.190.250.000.070.030.080.030.01
YoY Growth---21.75%-30.50%-21.76%11,239.36%-96.79%137.16%-65.72%163.91%178.55%-23.64%
Dividend Yield--0.44%1.25%1.67%1.77%0.01%0.29%0.00%0.35%0.13%0.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)48.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.736.083.65
Cash Retained (M)13.6313.6313.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.73-6.08-3.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.907.559.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)141.72141.72141.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate0.11%0.11%0.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$57.97$64.01$68.30
Upside / Downside154.16%180.62%199.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)48.6751.8455.2158.8062.6266.6968.69
Payout Ratio71.99%75.59%79.19%82.80%86.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.0439.1943.7248.6854.1060.0263.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.11%0.11%0.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)38.7839.1439.51
Year 2 PV (M)42.8143.6344.45
Year 3 PV (M)47.1748.5249.90
Year 4 PV (M)51.8753.8655.92
Year 5 PV (M)56.9459.6962.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,027.826,318.976,621.26
Equity Value (M)6,265.386,563.816,873.58
Shares Outstanding (M)141.72141.72141.72
Fair Value$44.21$46.31$48.50
Upside / Downside93.81%103.04%112.63%

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