Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Anhui Coreach Technology Co.,Ltd (002983.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.15 - $5.88$5.00
Multi-Stage$6.01 - $6.61$6.30
Blended Fair Value$5.65
Current Price$20.93
Upside-72.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.300.210.170.200.000.000.000.030.140.00
YoY Growth--41.94%25.11%-13.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-78.05%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.69%1.01%0.94%1.23%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)137.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)137.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.5517.2210.33
Cash Retained (M)137.34137.34137.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.55-17.22-10.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)109.80120.13127.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)217.86217.86217.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.500.550.58
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.500.550.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.550.58
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.15$5.00$5.88
Upside / Downside-80.18%-76.11%-71.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)137.74136.36135.00133.65132.31130.99134.92
Payout Ratio0.29%18.23%36.17%54.11%72.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.3924.8648.8372.3295.34117.89124.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)22.3822.6122.83
Year 2 PV (M)39.5840.3941.21
Year 3 PV (M)52.7854.4156.07
Year 4 PV (M)62.6465.2367.91
Year 5 PV (M)69.7373.3677.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,062.031,117.341,174.92
Equity Value (M)1,309.141,373.341,440.09
Shares Outstanding (M)217.86217.86217.86
Fair Value$6.01$6.30$6.61
Upside / Downside-71.29%-69.88%-68.42%

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