Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guilin Seamild Foods Co., Ltd (002956.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.93 - $35.25$21.99
Multi-Stage$10.28 - $11.24$10.75
Blended Fair Value$16.37
Current Price$19.75
Upside-17.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS123.47%33.39%0.310.280.280.280.580.010.010.530.280.18
YoY Growth--13.29%-0.84%-0.56%-51.68%10,224.41%-4.04%-98.90%89.21%55.54%928.89%
Dividend Yield--1.95%2.17%1.84%1.68%3.03%0.03%0.03%2.82%1.49%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)156.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)155.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.3819.6111.77
Cash Retained (M)155.94155.94155.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.38-19.61-11.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)124.55136.32144.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)222.24222.24222.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.560.610.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.560.610.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.620.65
WACC / Discount Rate9.49%9.49%9.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.93$21.99$35.25
Upside / Downside-24.41%11.36%78.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)156.91167.11177.97189.54201.86214.98221.43
Payout Ratio0.62%18.50%36.37%54.25%72.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.9830.9164.73102.82145.59193.48204.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.49%9.49%9.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)27.9728.2328.50
Year 2 PV (M)52.9954.0055.02
Year 3 PV (M)76.1578.3380.56
Year 4 PV (M)97.55101.30105.16
Year 5 PV (M)117.29122.95128.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,912.662,005.052,100.96
Equity Value (M)2,284.602,389.862,499.03
Shares Outstanding (M)222.24222.24222.24
Fair Value$10.28$10.75$11.24
Upside / Downside-47.95%-45.55%-43.07%

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