Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhejiang XinNong Chemical Co.,Ltd. (002942.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.62 - $5.15$4.37
Multi-Stage$10.79 - $11.92$11.35
Blended Fair Value$7.86
Current Price$18.69
Upside-57.96%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.81%-3.56%0.200.250.500.230.290.240.410.290.140.22
YoY Growth---20.00%-50.00%112.79%-18.14%18.18%-41.52%44.38%104.26%-37.38%-21.75%
Dividend Yield--1.29%1.90%2.56%1.35%1.34%1.21%1.69%1.80%0.88%1.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)86.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)39.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.3310.836.50
Cash Retained (M)39.9439.9439.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.33-10.83-6.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.6029.1133.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)153.86153.86153.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.190.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.190.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.52
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-5.56%-4.56%-3.56%
Fair Value$3.62$4.37$5.15
Upside / Downside-80.65%-76.62%-72.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)86.6782.7278.9575.3471.9168.6370.69
Payout Ratio53.92%61.13%68.35%75.57%82.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46.7350.5753.9656.9459.5361.7765.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-5.56%-4.56%-3.56%
Year 1 PV (M)47.1247.6248.11
Year 2 PV (M)46.8447.8448.85
Year 3 PV (M)46.0547.5349.04
Year 4 PV (M)44.8646.7948.78
Year 5 PV (M)43.3745.7148.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,432.721,510.201,591.00
Equity Value (M)1,660.961,745.691,833.94
Shares Outstanding (M)153.86153.86153.86
Fair Value$10.79$11.35$11.92
Upside / Downside-42.24%-39.30%-36.23%

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