Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhejiang AngLiKang Pharmaceutical CO.,LTD. (002940.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.64 - $13.90$10.24
Multi-Stage$18.63 - $20.52$19.56
Blended Fair Value$14.90
Current Price$38.02
Upside-60.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.74%-2.42%0.300.210.170.240.450.340.010.230.150.11
YoY Growth--40.81%22.19%-27.41%-47.75%33.35%3,406.00%-95.74%55.50%34.61%-71.23%
Dividend Yield--2.15%1.28%0.75%1.29%2.53%1.69%0.05%1.44%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)108.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)67.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.6213.518.11
Cash Retained (M)67.8767.8767.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.62-13.51-8.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)46.2654.3659.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)198.37198.37198.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.270.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.270.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.440.480.50
WACC / Discount Rate5.31%5.31%5.31%
Growth Rate-0.38%0.62%1.62%
Fair Value$7.64$10.24$13.90
Upside / Downside-79.90%-73.06%-63.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)108.09108.76109.44110.12110.80111.49114.83
Payout Ratio37.21%47.77%58.32%68.88%79.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.2251.9563.8375.8588.02100.34106.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.31%5.31%5.31%
Growth Rate-0.38%0.62%1.62%
Year 1 PV (M)48.8449.3349.82
Year 2 PV (M)56.4257.5658.71
Year 3 PV (M)63.0464.9666.91
Year 4 PV (M)68.7871.5874.47
Year 5 PV (M)73.7177.4981.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,385.083,558.433,738.80
Equity Value (M)3,695.873,879.344,070.13
Shares Outstanding (M)198.37198.37198.37
Fair Value$18.63$19.56$20.52
Upside / Downside-51.00%-48.56%-46.03%

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