Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Bank of Zhengzhou Co., Ltd. (002936.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.47 - $2.13$1.79
Multi-Stage$3.34 - $3.69$3.51
Blended Fair Value$2.65
Current Price$1.98
Upside33.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-19.24%-1.86%0.050.050.110.050.120.150.050.130.120.08
YoY Growth---0.01%-52.13%111.17%-56.35%-22.12%178.07%-57.04%9.54%49.12%23.65%
Dividend Yield--2.71%2.65%5.30%1.94%3.80%5.18%1.19%2.56%2.34%1.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,910.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)480.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,430.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)382.14238.84143.30
Cash Retained (M)1,430.671,430.671,430.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-382.14-238.84-143.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,048.531,191.831,287.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,178.769,178.769,178.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-3.86%-2.86%-1.86%
Fair Value$1.47$1.79$2.13
Upside / Downside-25.75%-9.65%7.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,910.681,856.101,803.081,751.571,701.531,652.921,702.51
Payout Ratio25.12%38.10%51.07%64.05%77.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)480.01707.14920.891,121.861,310.591,487.631,574.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-3.86%-2.86%-1.86%
Year 1 PV (M)653.86660.66667.46
Year 2 PV (M)787.36803.83820.46
Year 3 PV (M)886.92914.89943.43
Year 4 PV (M)958.07998.561,040.31
Year 5 PV (M)1,005.561,058.951,114.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,384.7127,785.7129,245.60
Equity Value (M)30,676.4932,222.5933,831.86
Shares Outstanding (M)9,178.769,178.769,178.76
Fair Value$3.34$3.51$3.69
Upside / Downside68.79%77.30%86.16%

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