Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Aoshikang Technology Co., Ltd. (002913.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$80.77 - $223.66$209.60
Multi-Stage$31.83 - $34.81$33.29
Blended Fair Value$121.45
Current Price$40.48
Upside200.02%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS29.28%33.53%0.760.500.970.670.250.210.150.030.300.60
YoY Growth--50.90%-48.53%46.13%172.28%16.86%39.20%445.74%-90.89%-49.61%1,331.44%
Dividend Yield--2.89%1.77%2.79%2.17%0.84%0.88%0.55%0.13%1.38%2.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)356.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)216.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)140.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)71.3844.6226.77
Cash Retained (M)140.68140.68140.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-71.38-44.62-26.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)69.3096.07113.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)317.38317.38317.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.300.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.680.680.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.300.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.900.981.04
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$80.77$209.60$223.66
Upside / Downside99.54%417.79%452.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)356.92380.13404.83431.15459.17489.02503.69
Payout Ratio60.58%66.47%72.35%78.23%84.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)216.24252.66292.90337.30386.24440.12465.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)234.63236.85239.07
Year 2 PV (M)252.58257.39262.25
Year 3 PV (M)270.11277.86285.76
Year 4 PV (M)287.22298.27309.63
Year 5 PV (M)303.93318.60333.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,754.569,177.419,616.44
Equity Value (M)10,103.0310,566.3911,047.00
Shares Outstanding (M)317.38317.38317.38
Fair Value$31.83$33.29$34.81
Upside / Downside-21.36%-17.75%-14.01%

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