Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

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Zhejiang Yueling Co., Ltd. (002725.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.74 - $2.44$2.09
Multi-Stage$2.93 - $3.23$3.08
Blended Fair Value$2.58
Current Price$16.00
Upside-83.85%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-43.97%-27.73%0.010.020.040.010.080.110.020.070.090.16
YoY Growth---72.71%-45.64%212.48%-82.47%-32.02%584.46%-76.08%-26.03%-40.00%-3.11%
Dividend Yield--0.05%0.21%0.42%0.15%0.94%1.19%0.16%0.84%0.73%1.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)73.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)71.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.679.175.50
Cash Retained (M)71.3671.3671.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.67-9.17-5.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)56.6962.1965.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)255.87255.87255.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.240.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.240.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.27
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-3.60%-2.60%-1.60%
Fair Value$1.74$2.09$2.44
Upside / Downside-89.11%-86.93%-84.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)73.3571.4469.5867.7766.0064.2866.21
Payout Ratio2.70%20.16%37.62%55.08%72.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.9814.4026.1837.3347.8857.8561.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-3.60%-2.60%-1.60%
Year 1 PV (M)13.0713.2013.34
Year 2 PV (M)21.5522.0022.45
Year 3 PV (M)27.8828.7629.65
Year 4 PV (M)32.4533.8235.23
Year 5 PV (M)35.5837.4639.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)619.25652.04686.21
Equity Value (M)749.77787.28826.30
Shares Outstanding (M)255.87255.87255.87
Fair Value$2.93$3.08$3.23
Upside / Downside-81.69%-80.77%-79.82%

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